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By ETHAN
ZINDLER Among the many homes still on the market is Kathleen Pouser's five-bedroom, three-bath ranch in Osterville. For the last five years, Pouser has rented it during the months of July and August, and stayed in another property in Provincetown. Generally, the house fetches $1,700 a week. In the past, Pouser has rented it for seven to nine weeks per summer. Not this year. "I don't have one single rental, and I've had very few inquiries," Pouser says. "I've even dropped it to $1,500." As in previous years, she says she has advertised the house in The Boston Globe, The Patriot Ledger, and through a chain of weekly papers around Massachusetts. For Pouser, the rent she receives from summer tenants is a crucial part of her annual income. "If I don't have any rentals by June 1, I'm going to put it on the year-round market," she says. Her asking price there will probably be close to $1,100 a month. Data provided to the Times from www.weneedavacation.com, a summer rental Web site with an inventory of close to 10,000 weeks of July and August rentals, reveals a market that has weakened substantially across the board. A year ago, by the first week in May, the company had booked tenants for 74 percent of its available rentals during the summer's busiest weeks. This year, just 56 percent are nailed down. Some weeks for 2003 look particularly rough. Slightly more than half of available properties for the week of July 4 have been claimed, down from 77 percent at this time last year. The data reveal little significant difference between various regions across the Cape or Nantucket. Martha's Vineyard appears to be weathering the tough conditions better, but not by much. The top of the market looks no stronger than the bottom. Homes with waterfront views are only slightly more likely to be booked than others, according to the data. Brokers say tough weather, the war in Iraq and a generally sluggish economy combined to flatten demand. Media reports depicting oil-covered birds from the spill in Buzzards Bay didn't help, either. "It's almost like the perfect storm," said Dennis Murphy of Donahue Real Estate in Falmouth. "People weren't coming in to look." A glut of available rental properties may also be to blame. On www.weneedavacation.com, the total number of listings for the 10 weeks of July and August has nearly doubled. But bookings haven't kept pace; they're up 60 percent. With the equities markets struggling, Murphy says homeowners are looking to earn a little extra income from their second homes on the Cape, often to defray mortgage expenses. "The last couple years, people have been pretty flush," he says. "Now maybe they're thinking we will rent it out when we're not going to be there." Not all summer brokers are willing to concede 2003 will end up in the loss column. Jean Ellis of Kinlin Grover GMAC Real Estate Vacation Rentals claims the agency has rented 80 percent of the roughly 5,000 summer weeks in its inventory. "We're just about where we were last year," she says. And there is hope that as the weather improves, renters will remember how much they enjoy the annual family pilgrimage to the Cape. Thanks to the Internet, would-be renters can secure a summer home much more expeditiously now than in the past.
Why it matters The months of July, August, and September account for half the region's $1.3 billion in direct spending on tourism, according to the Cape Cod Chamber of Commerce. The number of tourists who visit here and the pile of cash they leave behind affect the region's economy 365 days of the year. Given that, the preliminary reports from local brokers are somewhat troubling when considered on their own. But throw national and regional economic statistics into the mix and the summer outlook darkens significantly. U.S. unemployment in April hit 6 percent, a 0.2 percent bump up from the previous month, according to the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics. And that figure fails to take into account tens of thousands of workers who have been out of work more than 12 months. The bureau considers them no longer part of the work force. The unemployed have taken a toll on overall consumer psyche. In February, the New York-based Conference Board reported that consumers were less inclined to book a vacation than at any time in more than 20 years. Overall consumer confidence has since rebounded, according to the board, thanks in part to the end of hostilities in Iraq. But the number of people who said they plan to take a vacation in the next six months hasn't budged. Still, local business leaders are trying to stay upbeat. Local brokers say there is still time for the home rental market to recover. Some say they already see signs that business is picking up. "The week before last was the busiest week of the year," says Murphy, whose firm has filled roughly 370 of the 500 summer rental contracts it originally had available. Murphy says it's the first time he can recall that the firm's best week took place later than January. Wendy Northcross of the Cape Chamber say that the skies are beginning to clear, both literally and figuratively. She sites a recent study conducted by the Travel Industry Association of American indicating that 82 percent of Americans are planning a summer vacation for 2003, but that just half have booked plans. "People are looking for someplace that's safe and affordable," says Northcross. "I think the Cape is very well positioned to have a good summer." (Published: May 18, 2003) |
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