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By ETHAN ZINDLER Even in an ordinary year, forecasting the summer is a daunting task for local business owners. But with war worries deflating stocks and inflating oil prices, Cape tourism experts are finding it harder than ever to make the call. And for local businesses, predictions about the summer are more than academic. Many must make critical decisions now that are bound to impact their summer profits. Data released last week, might fuel pessimists' concerns. The Conference Board reported on Feb. 25 that U.S. consumers are less inclined to book a summer vacation now than at anytime in more than 20 years. The board surveys 5,000 households on a monthly basis. Only 42 percent said they intend to take a vacation within the next six months - that represents the lowest response to the question since December 1980. "In some respects, given what's going on in the world, it doesn't totally surprise me," says Wendy Northcross of the Cape Cod Chamber of Commerce. Northcross is worried about the Conference Board's broader finding that overall consumer confidence is at its lowest point since 1993. She says that consumer confidence and tourism spending tend to track one another. "If you overlap that (confidence) with leisure travel it's almost identical," she says. Still, Northcross says she is optimistic that consumer confidence will recover in time for next summer. "They may at this point in time say, 'no we're not planning to (vacation),' but three months in time they'll make a last minute decision," she says. Though, she admits, "they're not planning that great American adventure, either." The seemingly ominous data do not appear to concern Todd Barry, owner of Moby Dick's restaurant on Route 6 in Wellfleet. He says he is cautiously upbeat about the upcoming season. "I'm optimistic. I think the economy is beginning to turn around," Barry says. "I think we're on the upswing and the Cape's a great place to be." Barry says his establishment employed 20 overseas workers last season from the United Kingdom and elsewhere. He says that number will stay flat this year. But Barry is making a significant new investment this year by opening Moby's Cargo, a retail shop that will sell T-shirts, hats, and other gifts emblazoned with Moby Dick's logo. The store will be located on a plot Barry owns adjacent to the restaurant, which in previous years he rented to an antique store. He is running a calculated risk by foregoing rent revenue and getting into the retail business. "It's going to be a new ball game for us," he says. Just down the road, John Vincent Jr., is taking a somewhat more cautious approach to summer '03. Vincent, owner of Wellfleet Drive-In Theater and Cinemas, says he has "no idea" how the region's economy will fare this summer. He plans to hire more than 20 workers from overseas - roughly the same number as in previous years. But he has no plans to expand his business. If it proves to be an exceptionally busy summer, he will simply increase the number of overtime hours his staff works. Vincent says he looks to local real estate agents for guidance about upcoming seasons. "We're waiting to see the feedback on the rentals," he says. Early bookings of rental properties have the potential to serve as a leading indicator of summer activity on the Cape. At present, real estate agents appear to have decidedly mixed views on how the market will fare this year. Jamie Regan of Century 21 Regan Realtors in Mashpee Commons, which has an inventory of 500 summer rental weeks available, says rentals are running about 20 to 25 percent behind where they were at this point last year. He sites poor weather as the primary reason for the decline. "The storms have been inconvenient," he says. Snow has kept prospective
renters from visiting the Cape to scout summer properties.
Jeff and Joan Talmadge operate www.weneedavacation.com, an online
service based in Wellesley that allows prospective renters to browse
roughly 1,000 available summer rental properties. The couple also own a
home in East Orleans. Jeff Talmadge says that the number of homes rented
to date is up significantly over last year. But that may be more a reflection that his business is growing than an indication of what overall economic activity will look like next summer. The site features more properties this year than last, Talmadge says, and consumers appear to be increasingly willing to use the Internet to shop for summer getaways. Still, he notices that prospective renters are more discriminating this year than in the past. The time between when a renter first spots a property then puts down a deposit to secure rights to a specific week has increased, he says. "Is that the war or is it the economy slapping people up side the face?" Talmadge wonders. "It's hard to say." According to data supplied by weneedavacation.com, confirmed rentals made through the site dipped at the end of last November, shortly after the United Nations renewed its inspections in Iraq, a sign that war worries may have dented demand, at least temporarily. But some local business owners maintain that war anxieties will not hurt the Cape. In fact, they argue, fears about the geopolitical situation might actually help the region. "They're not traveling overseas so the money that they were spending there, they're spending here instead," says William Zammer, Jr., president of Cape Cod Restaurants, Inc., which owns the Coonamessett Inn in Falmouth, provides food service to the Ballymeade Country Club, and owns a few other local restaurants. Zammer says he applied for 100 visas to bring workers from Jamaica and Eastern Europe to the U.S. - 25 more than last year. Most of the new workers will be employed at the Pinehills Golf Club in Plymouth where Zammer's company will be providing food service. His firm spent over $1 million on capital improvements at Pinehills in anticipation of the coming season. In terms of overall spending, Zammer projects that summer, 2003 ultimately will end up looking a lot like summer 2002. "I think it will be flat," he says. (Published: March 4, 2003) |
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